Improving the Diagnostic Criteria for Primary Liver Graft Nonfunction in Adults Utilizing Standard and Transportable Laboratory Parameters: An Outcome-Based Analysis.

Current diagnostic criteria for primary nonfunction (PNF) of liver grafts are based on clinical experience rather than statistical methods. A retrospective, single-center study was conducted of all adults (n = 1286) who underwent primary liver transplant (LT) 2000-2008 in our center. Laboratory variables during the first post LT week were analyzed. Forty-two patients (3.7%) had 2-week graft failure. Transplant albumin, day-1 aspartate aminotransferase (AST), day-1 lactate, day-3 bilirubin, day-3 international normalized ratio (INR), and day-7 AST were independently associated with PNF on multivariate logistic regression. PNF score =(0.000280*D1AST)+ (0.361*D1 Lactate)+(0.00884*D3 Bilirubin)+(0.940*D3 INR)+(0.00153*D7 AST)-(0.0972*TxAlbumin)-4.5503. Receiver operating curve analysis showed the model area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.912 (0.889-0.932) was superior to the current United Kingdom (UK) PNF criteria of 0.669 (0.634-0.704, p < 0.0001). When applied to a validation cohort (n = 386, 34.4% patients), the model had AUROC of 0.831 (0.789-0.867) compared to the UK early graft dysfunction criteria of 0.674 (0.624-0.721). The new model performed well after exclusion of patients with marginal grafts and when modified to include variables from the first three post-LT days only (AUROC of 0.818, 0.776-0.856, p = 0.001). This model is superior to the current UK PNF criteria and is based on statistical methods. The model is also applicable to recipients of all types of grafts (marginal and nonmarginal).

A national survey of the provision of ultrasound surveillance for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the sixth most common cancer worldwide and third most common cause of cancer related death, is closely associated with the presence of cirrhosis. Survival is determined by the stage of the cancer, with asymptomatic small tumours being more amenable to treatment. Early diagnosis is dependent on regular surveillance and the primary objective of this survey was to gain a better understanding of the baseline attitudes towards and provision of ultrasound surveillance (USS) HCC surveillance in the UK. In addition, information was obtained on the stages of cancer of the patients being referred to and discussed at regional multidisciplinary team meetings. DESIGN: UK hepatologists, gastroenterologists and nurse specialists were sent a questionnaire survey regarding the provision of USS for detection of HCC in their respective hospitals. RESULTS: Provision of surveillance was poor overall, with many hospitals lacking the necessary mechanisms to make abnormal results, if detected, known to referring clinicians. There was also a lack of standard data collection and in many hospitals basic information on the number of patients with cirrhosis and how many were developing HCC was not known. For the majority of new HCC cases was currently being made only at an incurable late stage (60%). CONCLUSIONS: In the UK, the current provision of USS based HCC surveillance is poor and needs to be upgraded urgently.

A simple, noninvasive test for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis in patients with hepatitis C recurrence after liver transplantation.

Recurrent hepatitis C is a common cause of graft loss in patients undergoing liver transplantation, and serial protocol liver biopsies have been used to identify patients at risk of graft loss from rapid fibrosis progression. The aim of this study was to derive a simple noninvasive index to predict fibrosis in patients with recurrent hepatitis C post-transplant. A retrospective study was performed assessing serial liver biopsies for post-transplant chronic hepatitis C infection. One hundred eighty-five patients were included in the analysis; median age 53 years (interquartile range 48-59) and 140 (76%) were male. Liver histology showed 53 (29%) had Ishak fibrosis stages F0/F1, 31 (17%) had F2, 29 (16%) had F3, 19 (10%) had F4 and 53 (29%) had F5/F6. The London Transplant Centres' (LTC) score was derived combining aspartate aminotransferase (AST IU/L), time from liver transplant (TFLT months), international normalized ratio and platelets. Diagnostic accuracy of the LTC score was assessed using area under receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The area under the ROC curve for moderate fibrosis (F >or= 2) was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.86; P < 0.0001), for advanced fibrosis (F4-6) was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87; P < 0.0001) and for cirrhosis was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72-0.88; P < 0.0001). An optimal cut-off value of 6.3 distinguished patients with no or mild fibrosis (F

Artificial neural network is superior to MELD in predicting mortality of patients with end-stage liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Despite its accuracy, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), currently adopted to determine the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis, guide referral to transplant programmes and prioritise the allocation of donor organs, fails to predict mortality in a considerable proportion of patients. AIMS: To evaluate the possibility to better predict 3-month liver disease-related mortality of patients awaiting liver transplantation using an artificial neural network (ANN). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The ANN was constructed using data from 251 consecutive people with cirrhosis listed for liver transplantation at the Liver Transplant Unit, Bologna, Italy. The ANN was trained to predict 3-month survival on 188 patients, tested on the remaining 63 (internal validation group) unknown by the system and finally on 137 patients listed for liver transplantation at the King's College Hospital, London, UK (external cohort). Predictions of survival obtained with ANN and MELD on the same datasets were compared using areas under receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC). RESULTS: The ANN performed significantly better than MELD both in the internal validation group (AUC = 0.95 v 0.85; p = 0.032) and in the external cohort (AUC = 0.96 v 0.86; p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: The ANN measured the mortality risk of patients with cirrhosis more accurately than MELD and could better prioritise liver transplant candidates, thus reducing mortality in the waiting list.

The impact of diabetes mellitus on fibrosis progression in patients transplanted for hepatitis C.

Despite the recognition of numerous factors for aggressive hepatitis C virus (HCV) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) our understanding of this phenomenon is incomplete. We tested the hypothesis that diabetes mellitus (DM) was implicated. One hundred sixty-three patients undergoing primary LT for HCV from 1990 to 2004 were evaluated and biopsies were scored according to the modified Ishak score. Severe recurrence of HCV was defined as a fibrosis score > or = 4 within 6 years of LT. Risk factors assessed included recipient, donor and transplant variables. Fifty-four patients (33.1%) had a fibrosis score > or = 4 at the end of the study period. Factors associated with progression to severe fibrosis was donor age (p = 0.008) especially donor age >55 (p = 0.038, HR 2.43), pre-LT DM (p = 0.039, HR 2.68) and DM post-LT (p = 0.004, HR 3.28). The combination of receiving a liver from a donor older than 55 years and having DM post-LT was associated with an 8.38-fold risk of progression to severe fibrosis (p = 0.000124) when compared to patients not diabetic post-LT who received livers from donors aged <55 years. These data indicate that diabetic status is one of the more important variables determining the severity of HCV recurrence and is synergistic with donor age. This observation may provide an additional management opportunity to modify the impact of HCV recurrence.